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Weak pre-before-post pair biases sort synaptic weights in a conductance-based model of spontaneous network bursting

Preprint Created on 09 Sep 2026 bioRxiv

Spontaneous population bursts repeatedly expose synapses to correlated spike activity, but it is unclear whether such events reinforce pre-existing synaptic weight differences when precise firing order carries little information. We asked this in a conductance-based model of a bursting neuronal culture: 48 excitatory and 12 inhibitory stomatogastric-ganglion (STG) model neurons with sparse recurrent connectivity, short-term depression, and pair-based spike-timing-dependent plasticity (STDP), with every prediction and falsifier committed to a version-controlled record before the corresponding run. Across two cohorts of 10 connectivity wirings - realizations of one model, not independent preparations - stronger synapses consistently received greater net potentiation than weaker ones, although the preregistered magnitude criterion was not met. The spike statistic most closely associated with this sorting was not first-spike latency: stronger synapses instead showed a very small but highly consistent excess of pre-before-post spike pairs, 0.2-0.35 percentage points, accumulated over approximately 10^4 pairs per synapse in 60 s (median 8,960 in the out-of-sample cohort; approximately 3 x 10^6 per wiring). In a preregistered intervention, shortening bursts by 41% at approximately matched burst rate increased the sorting measure by about an order of magnitude in all five wirings. A second, physiologically distinct perturbation reproduced the relationship with realized burst duration, but duration could not be separated from per-burst spike count. All interventional evidence is computational. We then preregistered an observational test of the corresponding prediction in 16 archived recordings of developing cortical cultures. The predicted strength-ordered pair excess was not detected, and the predicted negative relationship with burst duration was absent. The former is a bounded null - the recordings exclude effects above +0.32 percentage points but cannot resolve the model's approximately 0.2-point magnitude; the latter was adequately powered under the preregistered criterion. A consistent positive latency-strength relationship, unpredicted by the model, was observed. The study therefore establishes a reproducible sorting phenomenon within a specific computational model and a testable burst-shortening prediction, but does not establish that the mechanism operates in living cortical networks; an intervention on cultured networks with an independently validated measure of synaptic strength is the decisive test.

Groppi, F., Ferrari, J.

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