Viruses exhibit diverse genome architectures and replication strategies that shape their evolutionary trajectories and taxonomic diversification. Here, we test whether the complexity of viral genetic information processing predicts large-scale patterns of viral diversity. We define a propagation index that quantifies a minimal number of steps required for viral genome expression and replication across the Baltimore classes. Using ICTV taxonomy data (1971 to 2024), we identify a strong consistent linear relationship between the propagation index and viral diversification at both the family and genus levels. This statistically significant association is also observed for DNA and RNA viruses independently. Notably, the correlation persists across decades of ICTV releases despite substantial expansion and restructuring of viral taxonomy. Viruses with simpler propagation strategies consistently exhibit greater diversification, suggesting that genome processing complexity constrains macroevolutionary potential. These findings establish a quantitative link between propagation architecture and viral diversification and provide a predictive framework for understanding large-scale patterns of virus evolution.
Pietrokovski, S., Shaul, Y.
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