Integrating multi-host modelling with empirical wildlife-livestock contacts reveals an essential population in a pathogen reservoir

Infections at the animal-human or wildlife-livestock interfaces have severe health and socio-economic consequences. Combined with empirical data, mathematical models can contribute to a better understanding of the reservoirs of these infections, which is a priority for mitigating their impact by using appropriate management interventions. Taking brucellosis in the Bargy massif (French Alps) as an example of a zoonosis at the wildlife-livestock interface, we developed and calibrated a multi-host model integrating data on direct and environment-mediated cross-species contacts from field observations. Estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0) allowed to identify the population of Alpine ibex (Capra ibex) and its environment as an essential host in the reservoir, driving both pathogen maintenance (within-species R0[≥]1: 1.66, 95% credible interval: 1.42-2.03) and its transmission to livestock (between-species R0>0: 0.035, 0.01-0.05). Our approach can be adapted to other multi-host pathogens, which will contribute to improve the understanding and management of these complex systems.

Lambert, S., Meyers, C., Bouillot, P., Fay, R., Gauthier, D., Marchand, P., Payne, A., Petit, E., Thebault, A., Vergne, T., Gilot-Fromont, E.

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